Slow & Safe vs Quick or Quit: The United Kingdom Dilemma
The Government has announced school reopening from 08th March, 2 months after the date of the third lockdown, thanks to the promising effect of the vaccination programme. As of 28th February, more than 20 million people in the UK have had their first coronavirus vaccine dose, a milestone which Boris Johnson referred to as “a testament to the tireless work of NHS staff, volunteers, the armed forces and many more”. As a result, around one in 145 people in private households across England had COVID 19 according to the Office for National Statistics, a significant decline compared to the one in ~100 before lockdown, showcasing its efficiency and allowing more lenient restrictions. Promises for a “cautious, but irreversible” roadmap out of lockdown were made by the Prime Minister amid the increasing positive news, yet we shall not forget that as time is wasted, businesses are suffering, and this creates a vexatious problem.
Following the logic on school reopening, many argue that restrictions on small businesses such as restaurants or shops should also be eased, as more and more are on the tips of failing miserably. It is estimated by LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) and the Alliance for Full Employment (AFFE) that more than 900,000 small businesses are at risk of bankruptcy, especially “micro” businesses - those with fewer than 10 employees -are particularly vulnerable. The impact on jobs is also “grim”, says former Prime Minister Gordon Brown in a report. Registered businesses now in the at-risk group employ 1.9 million people – 8 percent of private sector employment. When all at-risk businesses are taken into account, 2.5 million – 9 percent of jobs - are shown to be at stake. Without any policy actions, the likelihood of a mass collapse of businesses is quite certain.
A bus drives past a sign displaying the measures imposed by the government against the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), on the first day of a newly imposed lockdown, in London, Britain, November 5, 2020.
John Sibley | Reuters
Then remains the question, is it the right call to exterminate the lockdown to quickly save the businesses before they quit, or should the government stick to their steady plan of only reopening large parts of the economy on 12th April? Has the vaccination programme gone far enough so that we can safely call lockdown to an end? The UK's COVID-19 vaccination rollout will receive an extra £1.65bn to help reach its target of offering a first dose to every adult by 31st July.
It might be true that the leaders are redeeming themselves for their mistakes of reacting too late during the first lockdowns, neither of which lasted long enough for a “long-term” solution, but the costs add up and now, with vaccination, the science might no longer prevail the economic consequences, and more actions are needed. Not just “cautious but irreversible”, but “cautious and irreversible, but smart.”